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ZEUS replies

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 1 December 2009, at 8:39 p.m.

In Response To: Another decision for Zeus, Chuck? (Gregg Cattanach)

(I could put in the best stats for the two teams but as you can surmise below, it won't matter much.) Between NFL average (stats-wise) teams on a neutral field it's roughly an 8% error to punt. Improving both defenses doesn't have much effect. I tried making the team with the ball have a bad offense and the team without the ball a great offense -- got down to 6% difference -- the most I saw.

The thing is, as your offense gets worse (or THEIR defense gets better) you often have MORE reason to take a risk when you have decent field position. How often will you get back to such a good situation?

As far as Troy Aikman (or just about any NFL commentator/play-by-play 'expert'), they use the same reasoning/justification as 95% of NFL coaches. And you know what that is.

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