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OTB (warning.... Spoilers). Thoughts?

Posted By: Rod
Date: Wednesday, 31 July 2013, at 12:57 p.m.

In Response To: 42 for White (Rod)

So, it seems making the 4 is wrong - a small blunder on 3-ply.

However, based on opponent's resulting possible rolls (I took a look) and the way that virtually all players with 5+ PRs play (I think my feel for this cutoff is pretty good and perhaps influenced my choice of making the 4 over 13/7, which I also considered), I think that against most players making the 4 point is correct. Making the bar gives little room for opponents misplay. However, making the 4 gives a slew of responses that prove potentially more costly than the error of making the 4.

These types of plays are the interesting ones IMO. If we take the average open field opponent in this situation, OTB, making the 4 point is probably correct. Thoughts?

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