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| 42P-65R-33 [A C49] | |
For 42P-65R-33 (diagrammed above), my (Snowie) truncated rollout has A (Attack, 8/5(2) 6/3(2)) beating C (Cross, 24/21(2) 8/5(2) by .049, which is in between the .04 margin from the rollout you mentioned and the .06 margin from the rollout on Tim's site. This is an indication that truncs are reasonably trustworthy for this group of positions.
For the truncs of 42P-41S-33 and 42P-21S-33, see my other post.
Another instructive pair of positions, from my Copenhagen seminar in 2003, is shown below, with truncated rollout results encaptioned, and some notes beneath the diagrams. Again, it seems that the presence of the opponent's 9pt blot/builder swings the play.
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In the left-hand position BELOW, rollouts suggest that Blue will usually double next roll; that he has a marginal cube after White's 63 53 43, a clear cube after 64 44 42 41 32 21, or a cash after 55 54 52.
The A play (making the 5pt and 3pt) is a strong candidate in early game positions. After the 4pt is made, this aggressive 33 play is particularly efficient because it guarantees that all spares have been optimally used.
Making the 21pt and 5pt is the play most people try, but it is marginally wrong in the left-hand position. Black is more likely to gain a small advantage, but less likely to gain a big advantage. [Match play: C (Cross, 24/21(2) 8/5(2)) is better at GS.]
Although hitting on the 15pt disrupts White's offense, it is a blunder. Early on, using three (or four) parts of a doublets to hit is usually inferior to making two useful points.
Instead of 32, if White's roll was 43, as shown in the right-hand position above, her priming potential is greater. By making the 21pt, Black will take away more point-making numbers, and threaten both blots directly. In short, the play that is wrong in the left-hand position is right in the right-hand position.
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