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A small adjustment

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 23 June 2017, at 4:00 a.m.

In Response To: A small adjustment (Bob Koca)

Yes, the same thought had occurred to me: that a small adjustment would be enough to Wisecarve the position. Your Blue-2pt-to-1pt idea works (and along with that the location of the 7pt blot may have a bit of tolerance as well).

It also works to leave Blue's board as is (1pt open) and move his 7pt blot back just one pip, as shown below. That blot can go back as far as the midpoint, which is the other end of the Wisecarver range. (If on 14pt, Blue's race equity falls short to let him double 51D.)

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 109
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 116
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBB-A---fB------dBbba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

Blue on roll: No double (hence Wisecarver)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.33% (G:19.25% B:0.20%) 62.64% (G:20.85% B:0.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.67% (G:2.08% B:0.05%) 37.36% (G:2.38% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities +0.420 +0.878
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.594±0.008 (+0.587..+0.602)
Double/Take:+0.579 (-0.015)±0.009 (+0.570..+0.589)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.406)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.4%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41086525
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:99.2%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 57 minutes 19 seconds

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