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Correlations  est PR, ELO, ABT points / tournament
Posted By: Rod
Date: Monday, 14 October 2013, at 8:16 p.m.
In Response To: Correlations  est PR, ELO, ABT points / tournament (Bill Phipps)
The estimated PR is my estimate of each player's PR. The rest of the data comes from the USBGF.
0.63. ELO:avg ABT points/tournament This means that there is a strong correlation between ELO and points won by a player per tournament. It stands to reason since wins/losses generate ELO and the more wins the more likely one is to get points.
0.61 est PR for players : ELO This means that there is a strong inverse correlation (as strong as between ELO and points) between ELO and my estimated PR for players. This means that my estimated PRs are probably in the ballpark  it's a fairly strong correlation.
0.38 Est PR for players : avg ABT points / tournament This means there is a weakmoderate inverse correlation between est PR and points won per tournament for a player. To add to this, the correlation for players with PR's 7 and higher and points won is 0.05, or essentially no correlation. And for players with PRs 7 and lower and points won it is 0.40, or weakmoderate.
Take it for what you will. However, people can look at ELO and say it's low for one reason or another  it's an aggregate number and includes luck, bad and good. I feel like a series of high PRs, which is mostly skilldependent as opposed to luckdependent, is likely to be something people would prefer not be posted  I spoke to a few people confidentially about the issue.

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