Correlations - est PR, ELO, ABT points / tournament
Posted By: Rod In Response To: Correlations - est PR, ELO, ABT points / tournament (Bill Phipps)
Date: Monday, 14 October 2013, at 8:16 p.m.
In Response To: Correlations - est PR, ELO, ABT points / tournament (Bill Phipps)
The estimated PR is my estimate of each player's PR. The rest of the data comes from the USBGF.
0.63. ELO:avg ABT points/tournament This means that there is a strong correlation between ELO and points won by a player per tournament. It stands to reason since wins/losses generate ELO and the more wins the more likely one is to get points.
-0.61 est PR for players : ELO This means that there is a strong inverse correlation (as strong as between ELO and points) between ELO and my estimated PR for players. This means that my estimated PRs are probably in the ballpark - it's a fairly strong correlation.
-0.38 Est PR for players : avg ABT points / tournament This means there is a weak-moderate inverse correlation between est PR and points won per tournament for a player. To add to this, the correlation for players with PR's 7 and higher and points won is 0.05, or essentially no correlation. And for players with PRs 7 and lower and points won it is -0.40, or weak-moderate.
Take it for what you will. However, people can look at ELO and say it's low for one reason or another - it's an aggregate number and includes luck, bad and good. I feel like a series of high PRs, which is mostly skill-dependent as opposed to luck-dependent, is likely to be something people would prefer not be posted - I spoke to a few people confidentially about the issue.
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