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64R-32D-F-65P-61, Variant Rollout -- spoiler

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 13 April 2014, at 8:16 a.m.

In Response To: Which bar? #1 (54S-44P-61) -- spoiler (Nack Ballard)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 168
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---cE---c-eb---AA:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10

64R-32D-F-65P-61
[U D6] "<=20


1.Rollout1Bar/18eq: -0.582
Player:
Opponent:		38.17% (G:8.32% B:0.39%)
61.83% (G:25.70% B:0.87%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.585...-0.578) - [98.8%]
Duration: 5 hours 15 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 13/7eq: -0.588 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		37.60% (G:9.05% B:0.38%)
62.40% (G:22.17% B:1.79%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.592...-0.584) - [1.2%]
Duration: 5 hours 18 minutes
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92861368
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

This is a useful reference position. U (Up, bar/18) and D (Down, bar/24 13/7) are essentially tied.

We can therefore deduce, or further verify, that in Tim's 54S-44P-61 position (for which his rollout is not yet posted), where Blue has played an additional 13/8, U must be clearly better. There, his midpoint is already reduced to four checkers and (compared to here) he is stuck 5 fewer pips in the race.

Nack

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