[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Advanced Backgammon #185 -- Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 17 June 2014, at 11:21 p.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #185 -- Rollout (Igor)

I would definitely have been startled if hitting were the bot play. While it would definitely be nice to make the 17pt, it just seems too optimistic to try to achieve that with a tempo hit, since hitting will in general improve White's timing. If the plan of making the 17pt doesn't work then we've just shot ourselves in the foot by greatly increasing our chances of crunching. Too much risk for too uncertain a reward.

As for the top 3 plays, I'm not totally sure I trust the rollout. After bar/23 24/23, Blue will often get 9 checkers or more sent back. The computer may be undervaluing the backgame. If you really want to chase this down then I'd start by switching to DMP, to eliminate cube errors by the computer and to factor out the effect of gammons for simplicity.

However, if we take the rollout at face value, then I think that the point of 10/9 is not that we're afraid of getting gammoned more often by getting more checkers sent back, but that our timing is good enough that we want to be able to build our board in preparation for the shot that we hope to hit. The timing doesn't look great to me, but evidently the computer thinks that our checkers on the 10pt and 9pt are more likely to be containment assets than burial candidates.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.