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OT: Academic paper: The Role of Skill Versus Luck in Poker Evidence From the World Series of Poker

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Tuesday, 23 September 2014, at 1:41 a.m.

In Response To: OT: Am I the only one here who thinks poker is almost all pure luck? (Fender)

http://jse.sagepub.com/content/15/1/31.short

The Role of Skill Versus Luck in Poker Evidence From the World Series of Poker

Steven D. Levitt1 Thomas J. Miles2 1Department of Economics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA 2University of Chicago Law School, Chicago, IL, USA Steven D. Levitt, Department of Economics, University of Chicago, 1126 East 59th Street, Chicago, IL 60637, USA. Email: slevitt@midway.uchicago.edu

Abstract

In determining the legality of online poker—a multibillion dollar industry—courts have relied heavily on the issue of whether or not poker is a game of skill. Using newly available data, the authors analyze that question by examining the performance in the 2010 World Series of Poker of a group of poker players identified as being highly skilled prior to the start of the events. Those players identified a priori as being highly skilled achieved an average return on investment of over 30%, compared to a −15% for all other players. This large gap in returns is strong evidence in support of the idea that poker is a game of skill.

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