Right, this was the first thing I thought about. It means my original analysis of a variant where it was correct to pay now with smaller race lead was completely wrong. The following variants of Mochy's position show that it's correct to pay now with bigger race lead there and to pay later with smaller race lead. I must admit I don't understand what is going on.
        
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 98 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 83
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-ABBBBBbB----B---abbbbbb--:1:-1:1:45:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 45 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/1 5/1 | eq: +0.195 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.40% (G:0.78% B:0.02%)
35.60% (G:1.74% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.190...+0.199) - [100.0%]
Duration: 36.5 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/2 6/1 | eq: +0.174 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.08% (G:0.91% B:0.02%)
36.92% (G:1.94% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.170...+0.179) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35.0 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/4 8/3 | eq: +0.152 (-0.042) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.83% (G:1.04% B:0.03%)
38.17% (G:1.39% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.148...+0.157) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34.8 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/8 | eq: +0.127 (-0.067) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.60% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)
39.40% (G:3.22% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.125...+0.130) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55.0 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19511397
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 108 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 83
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-ABBBBBbB----Bba---bbbbb--:1:-1:1:45:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 45 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/8 | eq: +0.262 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.94% (G:0.80% B:0.03%)
32.06% (G:1.89% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.259...+0.265) - [100.0%]
Duration: 37.2 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/1 5/1 | eq: +0.216 (-0.045) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.92% (G:0.94% B:0.01%)
35.08% (G:2.73% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.212...+0.221) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 01 second |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/2 6/1 | eq: +0.193 (-0.069) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.83% (G:0.91% B:0.01%)
36.17% (G:2.49% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.188...+0.197) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58.1 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 8/4 8/3 | eq: +0.156 (-0.105) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.02% (G:0.95% B:0.01%)
37.98% (G:1.82% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.152...+0.161) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49.9 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19511397
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10