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A Classic Choice - cube factor question

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Saturday, 2 January 2016, at 10:17 p.m.

In Response To: A Classic Choice – Rollout & Variants (Taper_Mike)

With cube access the 10/6 7/1* pulls out ahead from being an .09 underdog to a .09 favourite - a swing for .18 equity.

The hit does give an efficient .17 cube when missed, which gives me a 2/3 * .17 = .11 equity.
The run gives a less efficient cash when missed for a .1 of equity, so 2/3 * .1 = .07.
These give a swing of only 0.04 in favor of hitting.

What are the other factors that produce the aditional .14(!) for the hitting play?
Or is the above way of looking at cube factor totally incorrect?

Below is the bot info for both cases.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 92
Unlimited Game
pip: 120
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBBBA--A------c-cbCdb--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 64

with cube at 2 on the opp's side

1.Rollout121/11eq: +0.2715
Player:
Opponent:		68.72% (G:9.11% B:0.26%)
31.28% (G:11.54% B:0.26%)		Conf.: ±0.0024 (+0.2690...+0.2739) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 38 seconds
2.Rollout110/6 7/1* eq: +0.1807 (-0.0908)
Player:
Opponent:		64.76% (G:8.86% B:0.16%)
35.24% (G:9.29% B:0.15%)		Conf.: ±0.0030 (+0.1776...+0.1837) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 02 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7671034
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2015-Dec-25
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
53P-33B-63S-51K-31-43P-66Z-53S-61O-21E-51p-52C-51J-43D-64O-C-44J-51Z-43P-F-43P-41E-64-n-tm.xgp
n[S J91 c135 C158] "<=5
n[S J92 c127 C157] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

with centered cube

1.xgRollout110/6 7/1* eq: +0,512
Player:
Opponent:		64,66% (G:8,83% B:0,13%)
35,34% (G:9,20% B:0,14%)		Conf.: ± 0,011 (+0,501...+0,523) - [100,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 29 seconds
2.Rollout121/11eq: +0,424 (-0,088)
Player:
Opponent:		68,26% (G:8,68% B:0,21%)
31,74% (G:11,25% B:0,24%)		Conf.: ± 0,004 (+0,420...+0,428) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

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