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Does the “Isight Method” Need an Adjustment in Long Races?

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 9:45 p.m.

In Response To: Summary of the “Isight Method” (Bob Koca)

It is not good to learn formulas without knowing when they are to be used. Are these meant for a certain length race? Are there other restrictions?

Axel Reichert, the creator of the Isight Method, used parameter-fitting software to adjust the parameters used by the Isight method. The software optimized parameters for the database of 50,000+ positions published by Tom Keith. Those are the same positions that Keith used when he created the Keith Count. In one sense, therefore, you could say that the Isight Method is applicable in any position where the Keith Count is applicable.

Some concern has been expressed that the database does not contain enough long races. Indeed, the chart given in Figure 14 (page 40) of the Isight PDF shows that the number of positions trails off sharply once the pip count reaches 100. Table 5, on page 18 of the Isight PDF, caps the analysis at 120 pips. Presumably, if the database contained more positions with pip counts over 100, a different set of parameters would have been selected for Isight.

This deficiency led several people to propose modifications to the Keith Count for longer races. Those modifications improved the accuracy of the Keith Count for long races. Whether similar modifications are needed for the Isight method, and if so, just what those modifications should be, has not been discussed in detail in this forum.

Mike

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