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Worst Superbowl Call - OT

Posted By: Steve Mellen
Date: Monday, 2 February 2015, at 7:16 p.m.

In Response To: Worst Superbowl Call - OT (Seth)

I felt it was a defensible call. The 99% of the time that pass isn't intercepted, no one questions the decision; there is widespread results-oriented criticism because the worst-case scenario happened to occur this time. Think of any backgammon match where someone gets hit with a 17-1 fly shot and the spectators are all like "why did he leave that shot?" And sometimes those spectators are right and sometimes they're just second-guessing.

Getting back to football, I think it is probably not possible to quantify this decision because there are too many uncertain variables. This isn't a situation where advanced stats or the 4th down bot can help us. I think it is just a judgment call between one set of risks and rewards versus another. One way to think about it is that 99% of the time when you don't get intercepted, you're essentially getting a free shot at scoring via the pass because you only have time for two rushing attempts either way (due to only having one time out).

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