Cube action ATS?
Posted By: ah_clem In Response To: Cube action ATS? (ah_clem)
Date: Monday, 16 September 2013, at 2:40 p.m.
In Response To: Cube action ATS? (ah_clem)
Reading the other responses (which I generally don't do until after I've commented since I try to do my own unbiased analysis first as an exercise) I see a gaping flaw in what I wrote. White doesn't have to take the four cube when he misses, so he's not playing for the match, he's only risking letting brown draw even.
Although the take point is a bit higher than the usual 9% due to white being able to pass the 8 cube, It's still a huge take since brown wins about 1/3rd of games and the dead-cube takepoint is 18%.
For the cube, let's calculate the theoretical doubling point:
ND-W -> 7aC -> 91%
RD-W -> win match -> 100%
ND-L -> 3a 5a -> 65%
RD-L -> 3a 3a -> 50%
I'm ignoring the few games where white wins after whiffing or where brown wins after being hit.
So, I'm risking 15% to gain 9%. r/(r+g) = 15/24 or about 62%
Since the doubling window opens at 62%, and there are a bunch of market losers I'll say it's a cube.
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