Cube action ATS?
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Cube action ATS? (HOMINID)
Date: Monday, 16 September 2013, at 4:13 p.m.
In Response To: Cube action ATS? (HOMINID)
Hello, HOMINID -- that message is very hard to read. Please do not use all caps and please do use paragraphs.
But if we're "counting rolls at a glance and converting to a %" in order to estimate game winning chances accurately, the correct number of hitting rolls is 24 out of 36, or 66.7%, not 60% (and 6 or 3 plus 5-1 and 4-2 hit). This should make White much more willing to double.
However, also consider that if White doubles, Brown is not always forced to immediately redouble to 8. Brown can instead play on for gammon; if he does he can always cash later. Brown never loses when White misses.
Brown's small gammon chances mean that White's double to 4 doesn't risk only ~15% (the difference between D-and-Lose for a 4-4/7 score for 50% MWC and ND-and-Lose to lead 4-2/7 for ~65%), but a little more than that. White's doubling window might open not at 14.8/24.1 = 61.4% or ~15/24 = 62.5%, but perhaps 16/25 = 64% or 17/26 = 65.4.%
I would guess that after a redouble by White to 4, Brown, with his speed board, can surely win the game and the match at least 1 time out of the 24 times that White hits. If so, White's GWC would be at most 63.8%, not enough to double.
So, despite our different sets of numbers and methods, it does seem that we agree that White should not redouble to 4.
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