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BGonline.org Forums
Cube action ATS?
Posted By: HOMINID In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)
Date: Monday, 16 September 2013, at 3:13 p.m.
TO ANSWER THIS QUESTION WITH CONFIDENCE ONE NEEDS TO CALCULATE THE GAME WINNING CHANCES THEN COMPARE IT TO THE MWC EQUITY TABLE , THE DOMAIN OF THE NERDS. YOU COULD ARGUE THAT THE GAME WINNING CHANCE IS 60% + NOT IN A DOUBLING RANGE BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DRAMATICALLY. THE MOST IMPORTANT FACT ABOUT THIS MATCH IS THE SCORE 4-0 IN A 7 POINT MATCH. THE FIRST FACT ONE NOTICES IS WHITES HITTING OPURTUNITIES. AT THE LEAST ONE SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF COUNTING ROLLS AT A GLANCE.AND CONVERTING TO A %.KEEP THINGS SIMPLE.THIS GIVES WHITE A 60% + CHANCE OF HITTING OR A 40% - CHANCE OF MISSING. THAT’S ALL THE TECHNICAL STUFF ONE NEEDS. LET’S CONSIDER THE VARIOUS OUTCOMES. WHITE DOUBLES BLACK TAKES. THE ONLY SENSIBLE OPTION FOR BLACK AS THE MATCH WILL BE ON 6-0 SHOULD HE LOSE. WHITE HITS GAME AND MATCH OVER 8-0 WHITE WINS MATCH. WHITE MISSES BLACK WINS GAME MATCH 4-4. WHITE DOES NOT DOUBLE THERES A 40% CHANCE OF MISSING !! WHITE HITS GAME OVER MATCH 6-0. WHITE MISSES BLACK WINS GAME MATCH 4-2. FROM A MWC POINT OF VIEW NO CUBE IS BEST.IT KEEPS WHITE VERY MUCH IN CONTROL OF THE MATCH. RATHER THAN LEAVING THE OUTCOME TO THE VAGERIES OF THE DICE. USE COMMON SENSE WHEN ASSESSING MWC. MOST PLAYERS USE ROTE WHEN PLAYING BG ALONG WITH A LITTLE FINESS. VERY OFTEN YOU DONT NEED ALL THE JARGON TO ARRIVE AT A GOOD DECISION. BURY THAT DEAD CUBE ALONG WITH MWC LEAVE THE BAGGAGE TO THE NERDS.
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