Cube action ATS?
Posted By: HOMINID In Response To: Cube action ATS? (Daniel Murphy)
Date: Tuesday, 17 September 2013, at 12:11 p.m.
In Response To: Cube action ATS? (Daniel Murphy)
Hello Daniel it appears you have a fixation regarding decimal points and cant imagine a system that does not rely on them. Even a sloppy system is far better than none.
I certainly do underestimate the ability of some open players to do match equity calculations quickly and accurately in live tournaments. The truth is mostly they will be using shortcuts , experience and gut feelings to arrive at a good decision. There may be the odd one who can do the necessary mental arithmetical gymnastics to obtain a correct decision to the decimal point. The vast majority of online players are not capable of arriving at a true game-winning percent let alone wrestling with MWC tables. They will be grateful for a sloppy system that is never far from the truth. As for MWC tables there's dozens of them but the most interesting point is there only true between matched players. Where does that leave your decimal point.
With regard to the Gammon potential for Brown the sloppy odds say that 99.5% of the time there will be no Gammon. Hit or miss this game will end on an 8 cube. This figure could be refined further up or down but there is no real point in doing so. We have all rolled three doubles on the trot the trick is to do it when you really need it.
I note that John is showing another cube problem, let's give it the sloppy treatment. At a glance giving the same treatment as the first problem my verdict is no cube. Obviously the game winning chances are the same as the winning rolls percent . John kindly dropped the risk reward figures onto the page. It would be interesting to know how he arrived at these over the table.
Gasp!! XG says im wrong , consternation my system is too sloppy. XG is nothing more than a sophisticated odds calculator. It is a slave to the stats. As far as the cube is concerned this game is on a tipping point. I am on the wrong side of it by 1.4%, can't be bad.. I will not be defending my heresy in this matter any further
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