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Dodged a bullet to get here

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 20 September 2013, at 1:30 p.m.

In Response To: Dodged a bullet to get here (Chuck Bower)

We don't often get to double noncontact races, either, with five fewer checkers off.

The simple 10%+2 race formula says this is a bare money take, since 51 + 5.1 + 2 = 58.1, 0.1 more than 58, but that doesn't account for White's much more wasteful position. If we add a pip or so for that, this is clearly a money drop, but only by 2 or 3 percent. So Blue wins 80-81%.

Alternatively, a nondecimal Keith Count has this as a money drop by 1 adjusted pip, less if the 1/7th added to Leader's count is not rounded down. Estimating that 1 adjusted pip as ~3% GWC, again Blue wins 80-81%.

White's takepoint is 18.5%, which is Blue winning 81.5%.

It's probably a close take, therefore a clear double.

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