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Dodged a bullet to get here

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Saturday, 21 September 2013, at 9:56 a.m.

In Response To: Dodged a bullet to get here (Chuck Bower)

For money: (51-5)/7 and round down is 6. So, white would be at about 22% if she were 6 pips down. Blue wastes about 7 pips. Closed board with spares on 6, 5 and 4 wastes 9.7 pips. Here, White is doing better than that. I think, Doug Zare claimed that 2nd checker on ace wastes a pip. So, I would estimate White's total wastage at 8.7. That is 1.7 pips more than Blue.

If white were ahead by 4 pips, game would be even. Down 6 pips she is at 22%. So, 10 pips equals 28%. 1 pip equals 2.8%, and 1.7 pips equals about 4.5%. So, White's chances seems to be 17.5%. There is a problem with this approach. Walter"s formula does not actually say that 6 pips down is a borderline take for money. It simply gives last point of take. For all I know White's winning chances could be in 24.X% range when down by 6 pips. This would swing enough to make this position into a take at the score. Still, I would think that even if it is a take, then not by much. So, I will pass.

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