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Dodged a bullet to get here

Posted By: Igor
Date: Saturday, 21 September 2013, at 3:55 a.m.

In Response To: Dodged a bullet to get here (John O'Hagan)

John, I just don't see how you can possibly get 77.5% winning chance for blue here. Would you care to take a look at my argument and point out an error?

Blue clearly has a low wastage position for an EPC of 58. White is somewhere between a flat and a low wastage position, so let's say it's halfway with 8.5 pips of wastage with an EPC of 65.5.

Now, to the winning chances. This is the hard part and I can only provide some rough estimates with the tools that I know how to use.

1. White point of last take for money would be 58+5=63 pips. Blue is 2.5 pips short of that. The first pip costs 2%, down to 20%. The next pip costs 1.5%, so is looks like white winning chances are about 18% or a tad less.

2. Matussek's formula. I'll use the coefficient 2.9 (since it's 3 for 55 pips and 2.5 for 75 pips). It gives 16.5% winning chances for white.

Either way it looks like white is just a bit short of a take AtS. The computation above is definitely far from being perfect (I just don't know any better), but it is somewhat reasonable and is nowhere near 22.5% winning chance for white that you stated.

P.S. I don't know the Kleinman formula and will never know it unless a complete and coherent explanation of it appears in a public domain.

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