Posted By: Rod In Response To: Nonsense (Bill Phipps)
Date: Thursday, 19 December 2013, at 8:28 p.m.
In Response To: Nonsense (Bill Phipps)
I cashed in 24 events in 12 tournaments (including the IBC).
I don't think I'm better than I am - that is to say there are a number of players I wouldn't play cash games against and would feel I was an underdog against in any match (on average - I have outplayed a number of Giants a number of times - recoded analyzed matches).
I also understand the effect luck (bad and good) can have on runs.
I only believe that my live average PR would be less indicative of my expected results than it would lead someone to believe just by looking at that one number alone.
Did I have a lucky year? Sure - it takes luck to win any event. Were my results crazy? Dunno - my 11 tournaments in 2009 (the last time I played seriously) were good enough to cover all expenses and then some.
I know Mochy, MCG, and others are favorites over me. But I have enough matches where I've outplayed giants (or know I have because of massive opponent blunders [due to "wrong" play on my part], in part) to know I'm competitive. And I think I'm good enough where I can judge, mostly, when "bad" plays are "correct". Sometimes I'm "off" and just play less well - I'm susceptible to the bad day and the bad match, perhaps more so than others.
Call "bullshit" as you wish. Record our next match. Or better yet, let's play in NY one day and have someone transcribe it. I'm going to play you better than my "average" PR. I might play a 3.0 or a 5.0. If I'm luck or unlucky in the rolls I get I might play a 2.0 or a 6.0. All I'm saying is that I won't be playing you and intentionally dropping cubes. And I won't be giving you wrong cubes to increase the volatility either.
Let's take the average of my recorded matches available from this year currently available on bgonline. I'll come up with $50,000 (I'm sure I'll find backers for that) and bet I play better than that in an 11 pointer against you.
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