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Here's what I don't understand

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Thursday, 24 September 2015, at 1:02 p.m.

In Response To: Here's what I don't understand (Jim Stutz)

The notion that forecast data indicates a 12% chance of rain at 5 PM three days from now -- this is baloney, masquerading as information.

I don't see the point you are trying to make. If 100 years of weather data indicate that 12 times in the past it was raining at 5 p.m. on September 27, isn't it reasonable to give a 12% probability of rain for this year at 5 p.m. on September 27? Isn't this useful to know?

... using XG vs. XG rollouts to generate a MET with values like 25.64% and 40.05% is not, in my opinion, an appropriate, or valid, use of this information. The bot isn’t near that good, and we know it.

The bot isn't how good? Bot-versus-bot play has a different style than human-vs-human play and so the MET you get is different than what you'd get from a human playing another human. But there is no single human-versus-human MET either -- everyone is different. The fact that there is no "One True MET," or that the bot doing the rollouts isn't perfect, needn't prevent us from using a rolled-out MET to guide our play. What is the alternative?

Perfect is the enemy of good.

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