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Here's what I don't understand

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Friday, 25 September 2015, at 4:26 a.m.

In Response To: Here's what I don't understand (Timothy Chow)

Tim Chow wrote:

The predictions are based on meteorological rather than climatological models.

This was just an example. Suppose you are trying to decide what date to have your company picnic on and the whether data suggest a 4% chance of rain for July 27 versus a 12% chance of rain for September 27. I think that would be useful to know.

I think that one of Jim Stutz's points is that there is limited value in stating a predicted number to, say, three decimal places when the uncertainty in the prediction is in the region of ±0.5.

I agree it would be nice to know the uncertainties of the entries in popular METs. But if that information isn't available, I would rather have the raw numbers (i.e., without uncertainties) than no numbers at all. Even if you know the uncertainties, say in a rollout, it can be useful to have all values expressed to the same number of decimal places so as to avoid values being misread.

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