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What is the lowest winning % for Too good?

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Wednesday, 10 July 2013, at 3:54 a.m.

In Response To: What is the lowest winning % for Too good? (Rick Janowski)

Here is an example where a player has a cash and has almost no chance of losing it on the next sequence (only 44 and then 66 for opponent). Such a small risk means the player should roll and go for the gammon (but be quick to subsequently cube if there is increased danger). The cubeless equity is only .925





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 50
Unlimited Game
pip: 58
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aCBCBBB-----A---------cef-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 95.039% (G:2.399% B:0.030%) 95.242% (G:2.262% B:0.037%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 4.961% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 4.758% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.9251 +1.8557
Cubeful Equities
No double:+1.0030±0.0006 (+1.0024..+1.0036)
Double/Take:+1.8322 (+0.8292)±0.0037 (+1.8285..+1.8359)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (-0.0030)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 0.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2.4 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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