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Basic ace deuce backgame cube

Posted By: rew
Date: Tuesday, 16 July 2013, at 6:45 p.m.

In Response To: Basic ace deuce backgame cube (neilkaz)

Here is a rollout which doesn't agree with this reasoning (as far as I can tell). By the way, another extreme difference between eval and rollout for deep anchor backgame in this position :





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 58
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bbFED-----------bbcbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 54,57% (G:33,41% B:9,39%) 54,08% (G:33,06% B:9,42%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 45,43% (G:0,01% B:0,00%) 45,92% (G:0,01% B:0,00%)
Cubeless Equities +0,519 +1,013
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,609±0,019 (+0,589..+0,628)
Double/Take:+0,567 (-0,042)±0,023 (+0,544..+0,590)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,391)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8,8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:99,7%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 6 hours 18 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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