It is a much worse position for the backgame defender than what I posted. The cubeless RO shows it as a take even if the cube is dead with the XG+ equity at .489 compared to .619 for my position.
I agree that the advanced straggler is a negative for the backgame player but the 3 extra checkers are a huge plus for him. With 1s, 2s, 5s and 6s playing from the 5 point the 5 point will very likely be empty before the spares on the 3 and 4 are gone so the extra checkers being useful attackers does not add much. But when there is a hit on the 5 point or on the 2 point after a bad two up to 3 fewer checkers have already been borne off.
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| XGID=-bbFED-----------bbcbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:0 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 53.521% (G:32.960% B:8.939%) | 53.514% (G:32.965% B:8.936%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 46.479% (G:0.005% B:0.000%) | 46.486% (G:0.005% B:0.000%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.4894 | +0.9785 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.4894 (-0.4891) | ±0.0073 (+0.4820..+0.4967) |
| Double/Take: | +0.9785 | ±0.0147 (+0.9638..+0.9932) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.0215) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: XG Roller+, cube decisions: 1-ply | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 99.8% | |
| Duration: 3 hours 21 minutes | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10