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My matches in New York Metropolitan Open 2014

Posted By: Igor
Date: Saturday, 18 January 2014, at 1:38 a.m.

In Response To: My matches in New York Metropolitan Open 2014 (Henrik Bukkjaer)

But looking further down in the same match, game 3, you decide to take when doubled in a dubious 2-5 backgame. (at this point, Jason have missed 7 cubes in that particular game). Score is 6-0/9 in your favor, and you risk a gammon at the rate of about 20%.

The position is a proper double, and a pass according to XG. It's by no means a big pass, only a 0,027 error, but if you were going to adjust anything in your game from low PR towards winning - this is exactly the place to do so (in my eyes).

I have done a few rollouts of backgame cube actions with XGR+ checker plays and cube decisions, search interval huge. What I noticed is that XG evaluation of backgame cube decisions is way off. It grossly undervalues chances of the backgame player. Perhaps due to its known weakness in containment game.

I have not done rollouts for that particular game, but I believe they might turn all those "missed cubes" by Jason into proper non-doubles and Mochy's "small pass" into a huge take.

Here is a sample of what I did some time ago to compare different rollout settings. Anything lower than XGR+/XGR+ is quite a bit off. Notice that changing search interval for 4-ply checker play has zero effect -- meaning XG does not play 4-ply much better than 3-ply for backgames.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 66
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bbDDDC-----------cbbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.90% (G:37.58% B:8.07%) 65.91% (G:38.04% B:8.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 34.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.755 +1.558
Cubeful Equities
No double:+1.000
Double/Take:+1.306 (+0.306)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 66
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bbDDDC-----------cbbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.76% (G:37.10% B:8.00%) 64.72% (G:37.24% B:8.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 35.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.746 +1.500
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.970 (-0.030)0.012 (+0.958..+0.981)
Double/Take:+1.176 (+0.176)0.025 (+1.151..+1.201)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31641692
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 45 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 66
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bbDDDC-----------cbbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.48% (G:37.02% B:7.87%) 63.79% (G:37.00% B:8.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 36.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.739 +1.453
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.968 (-0.032)0.006 (+0.962..+0.975)
Double/Take:+1.121 (+0.121)0.019 (+1.102..+1.140)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31641692
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 19 minutes 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 66
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bbDDDC-----------cbbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.48% (G:37.02% B:7.87%) 63.71% (G:36.99% B:8.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 36.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.739 +1.449
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.968 (-0.032)0.006 (+0.962..+0.975)
Double/Take:+1.117 (+0.117)0.019 (+1.099..+1.136)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31641692
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 21 minutes 58 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 66
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bbDDDC-----------cbbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.48% (G:37.02% B:7.87%) 63.73% (G:37.01% B:8.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 36.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.739 +1.450
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.968 (-0.032)0.006 (+0.962..+0.975)
Double/Take:+1.121 (+0.121)0.019 (+1.102..+1.139)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31641692
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 24 minutes 24 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 66
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bbDDDC-----------cbbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.21% (G:36.84% B:7.73%) 63.70% (G:36.79% B:7.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 36.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.730 +1.442
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.967 (-0.033)0.007 (+0.960..+0.974)
Double/Take:+1.103 (+0.103)0.019 (+1.084..+1.122)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31641692
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 66
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bbDDDC-----------cbbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.93% (G:36.65% B:7.64%) 63.65% (G:36.84% B:7.88%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 36.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.721 +1.440
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.965 (-0.035)0.007 (+0.958..+0.972)
Double/Take:+1.099 (+0.099)0.020 (+1.079..+1.119)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31641692
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 66
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bbDDDC-----------cbbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.96% (G:36.66% B:7.64%) 63.60% (G:36.63% B:7.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 36.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.722 +1.435
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.957 (-0.043)0.009 (+0.948..+0.966)
Double/Take:+1.094 (+0.094)0.021 (+1.073..+1.116)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24617919
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

About 0.2 in relative equity difference regarding the pass decision between XGR++ evaluation and XGR+/XGR+ rollout.

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