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My matches in New York Metropolitan Open 2014

Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Saturday, 18 January 2014, at 2:07 p.m.

In Response To: My matches in New York Metropolitan Open 2014 (Henrik Bukkjaer)

But looking further down in the same match, game 3, you decide to take when doubled in a dubious 2-5 backgame.

Here's the position:





White is Mochy

score: 6
pip: 165
9 point match
pip: 106
score: 0

Blue is Jason Lee
XGID=--bBBcCBBB---B--ab-cb-b---:0:0:1:00:0:6:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.90% (G:19.16% B:0.56%) 67.43% (G:18.98% B:0.56%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.10% (G:3.38% B:0.11%) 32.57% (G:3.16% B:0.07%)
Cubeless Equities +0.481 +1.083
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.982 (-0.018)
played Double/Take:+1.027 (+0.027)
xg Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

(at this point, Jason have missed 7 cubes in that particular game).

I'm certainly not pleased about this. On the other hand, perhaps my practical action came out right, as I may have managed to find Mochy's point of last take.

At this point, Jason has shown that he's not playing the same level as you,

I think this probably comes before we sit down.

In this regards I may add, that Jason has shown in this game, that he's not aggressive with the cube,

I'm usually not that much of a wallflower when it comes to playing markedly stronger players. I didn't seriously consider cubing on the first of the five missed cubes, and on the last two, I just thought it was way too easy of a take for Mochy.

Here's an example in the first game:





White is Mochy

score: 0
pip: 118
9 point match
pip: 110
score: 0

Blue is Jason Lee
XGID=-A-B-bD-B-CCa-a--b-cbb--b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.18% (G:1.88% B:0.07%) 66.30% (G:1.87% B:0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.82% (G:1.90% B:0.02%) 33.70% (G:1.88% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities +0.324 +0.651
Cubeful Equities
xg No double:+0.512
played Double/Take:+0.427 (-0.085)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.488)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.9%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

So it turns out it's a pretty good no double, but I have no regrets about this. My future checker play is not going to be that hard, and I feel like such a dog in this match that I need to be a little lopsided on the cube. At the time, I wasn't sure if it was technically a double, but I figured I was close enough that I should give it a whirl.

Here's the last cube of the match:





White is Mochy

score: 7
pip: 107
9 point match
pip: 124
score: 4

Blue is Jason Lee
XGID=----CBCAC----A--bdcfB-----:0:0:-1:00:4:7:0:9:10
White on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 80.15% (G:1.16% B:0.00%) 80.73% (G:1.34% B:0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.85% (G:0.37% B:0.00%) 19.27% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.621 +1.931
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.944 (-0.056)
played Double/Take:+1.314 (+0.314)
xg Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

When I adjust for skill difference, the number at -5/C is going to have to change more than the number at C/-2 -- there's (on average) more backgammon to be played. I just didn't put a lot into my ability to come back from down -5/C against Mochy. XG says I win a shade under 20% in this position. I suspect this is not a hugely difficult position to play from here on out. The races are easy checker play, and when I hit a checker, I'm close to a 5-prime as it is, so containment is not going to cause too many problems.

I don't know if what I did was correct to try to win, but I knowingly gave up on the PR tally to try to win in this position.

(*) Let me emphasize, I'm not mocking Jasons performance here,

I didn't take it that way. It's no news to me that Mochy is an ever so slightly stronger player than I am.

what he played I'm sure that half of the field that day would be pleased with.

I came out with a PR of 7.02. That's slightly worse than my usual standard, and it includes the last cube which I KNEW was technically a drop.

I'll be curious to see if people will tell me that I swung the pendulum too far when trying to correct for the skill difference.

[Rollouts for these three positions are now in the queue.]

JLee

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