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Does everybody here know this?

Posted By: sebalotek
Date: Saturday, 20 August 2016, at 9:31 a.m.

In Response To: Does everybody here know this? (sebalotek)

p.s. the 'ruse' is quite risk laden and might not be as easy to carry off as it sounds..

S.G. >> Murat finds a position where he is a 27% dog or so. Murat doubles XG to 2.

i just had a quick play to try and simulate this.. at move 7

OTB, i guesstimated my position didn't look like it was close enough to the suggested 27% doubling point:

[After analysis it was 29.15% (G:4.42% B:0.12%) 70.85% (G:9.72% B:0.28%)]

so I waited for my Move 8 and OTB slightly misplayed the dice which left me with..

26.20% (G:3.21% B:0.08%) 73.80% (G:9.50% B:0.26%).

I thought: great - I must be closer to the 27% we are looking for - I'll cube next turn.

The trouble was, it was XG that cubed me immediately after, so the desired cube ownership order was out of sync. (which was disasterous for my plan :-(

--------------------------

I'm not an expert, but I think it is difficult to judge precisely your GWC % over the board. And for the purposes of this 'trick', this skill sounds very important. Perhaps one can cube earlier around the 30's (slightly easier to judge) rather than aiming for 27% and the ruse will still work?

Disastrous match file is here: https://goo.gl/2zae3h

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