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Basketball Playoffs Probability Question

Posted By: Kevin Whyte
Date: Monday, 29 April 2013, at 11:35 p.m.

In Response To: Basketball Playoffs Probability Question (Bob Koca)

I just took that assumption from the original post (two evenly matched teams). I think it is realistic for a lot of series ( say 3 vs 6 and 4 vs 5 ), although certainly not for all. Of course one can look at more general models than that. Most of these problems then have more involved answers. For example, if you think the higher seed has a big edge, even on the road, then you want a schedule like 3-4 to maximize the expected number of games (to see this must be right for some probabilities of victory, just think about the case where the higher seed wins 100% at home but can lose on the road - now the higher seed is guaranteed to win the series, so maximizing the number of games just means getting as many road losses for them as possible before that happens).

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