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BGonline.org Forums
Basketball Playoffs Probability Question
Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Thursday, 25 April 2013, at 12:15 p.m.
The NBA playoffs are upon us. Let's assume that two evenly matched teams are playing a four-of-seven series against each other. Let's also assume that each time a team plays at home, it is 60% to win the game. Does the team with the home field advantage (Team A) have a better chance of winning if the format is 2-2-1-1-1 or 2-3-2?
The 2-2-1-1-1 format means that Team A first plays two games at home, then two games away, then (if needed) one at home, one away and the last at home. The 2-3-2 format means that Team A plays the first two games at home, then three away (if needed), and the last two at home (if needed).
I am totally convinced that Team A has the same probability of winning the series regardless of which of these two formats is used. I have a very intelligent friend who argues that if the series is over after five games, Team A played more games at home in 2-2-1-1-1 than in 2-3-2, which gave Team A a greater advantage with the 2-2-1-1-1 format.
Who can come up with a brief and elegant explanation?
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