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Does the box have an advantage?

Posted By: Rod
Date: Saturday, 30 November 2013, at 4:19 p.m.

In Response To: Does the box have an advantage? (phil simborg)


You can "pull rank" all you want and still be as wrong as you are.

You have either misunderstood the "expert testimony" or, more likely, not asked the right questions or forgotten what you have been told. And somehow failed to consider all of the possible scenarios, which actually do occur.

Remember, I did not argue that it is something that should be done willy nilly or frequently; only that there are times when taking "just to try to keep the box" is correct.

I very much doubt if you asked the following that you would not find the answer to be a "yes":

"If you are playing in a 8-11 man chou with no partners (a situation that happens in New York with some frequency) and you have the opportunity to take a single cube (due to initial cubes not being given in unison, in conjunction with recubes), which you believe is a small drop (and would drop against the field or against that person in the box), would you take that cube and risk losing a single extra point to try to keep the box, would you?" Add to this that the weakest player in the chou is the captain next.

I have seen this situation happen. I believe that any "expert" money player, yourself included, would agree that giving up .06 equity on a single cube being turned to 2 is completely correct. 1 hour or longer between box seats? I believe that even 2 cubes in this situation could be correct. And let's examine the line-up... What if the weakest 3 players in the chou are the next 3 captains? What if you are a 65% favorite over 2 of these players and a 60% over the third? How much equity is it worth to give up in an attempt to keep the box? A LOT!

Further, on a slightly different note, there are all sorts of ways to fail to maximize temporary equity that may or may not be correct. You and I have discussed at least one of these.

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