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Playing under a 5.0

Posted By: mamabear
Date: Saturday, 14 December 2013, at 3:30 a.m.

In Response To: Playng under a 5.0 (Coolrey)

Why I am betting on myself, and incidentally also why I don't agree that pressure necessarily negatively impacts PR:

1. Everyone tends to put on their best game face for a final, and IMO are likely to play on the high side of their bell curve then.

2. In a final, you typically are playing a good opponent, and don't need to do the kind of messing around that is correct if you want to maximize your winning chances against weak opponents, but that trashes your PR.

3. Players who take the game seriously tend to improve their PR over time, even if very slowly, and so tend to play on the better side of their PR average on a given day in the present moment, even if not by a lot.

4. PRs and the averages thereof are fat, fuzzy dots, not pinpoint-accurate numbers, and the distributions they are based on, are skewed to the left--meaning in this case there are more numbers on the good side of the mean average than the bad side. To put it another way, all anybody ever tells you is your mean average, but your median would almost certainly be better, and so it is for everyone. And the median is the right number to consider when making the bet Ray is proposing.

5. More about those fat, fuzzy dots: Chances are that a person who makes it to the final is having a better than average playing day, and not in any superstitious, luck-related sense--just that they are less distracted, maybe in better health, less jet lagged etc. and so are playing on the high side of their game.

I've made this bet, and I plan to go to at least a few events this year; stay tuned!

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