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Ken’s rating proposal - the problem with rebuys

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 30 December 2013, at 4:44 p.m.

In Response To: Ken’s rating proposal - the problem with rebuys (Ken Larsen)

Regarding byes: Byes are random, so they'll be spread over the field randomly over many events. Rebuys are not. They "skew ratings data in a non-random fashion". That's why I need to adjust for them.

Not convincing. First because yes, random byes will be spread randomly "over many events." But most players don't play many events. In the short run, where most players exist, byes aren't spread randomly, and have enormous consequence. Second because I doubt if you have sufficient data to support your contention that rebuys are not — essentially — random, and "skew ratings data in a non-random fashion". I think you're assuming that some subset of players (wealthier ones?) are more likely to rebuy than others, in some significant way. Although ... it is true that a subset of players is more likely to rebuy. It's called "first round losers."

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