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OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic

Posted By: joe freedman
Date: Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 4:52 p.m.

In Response To: OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic (joe freedman)

Many thanks to Jake and the other responders. I guess I accept Jake's explanation, although it's still troubling to think that even though the witness has been certified as 80% accurate in color recognition, in fact he is only 41% accurate when he identifies blue cars in the problem situation. Of course, when he identifies a car as green, he is more than 95% accurate.

I'm not sure if the coin flip example is pertinent. If you choose red or green based on a coin flip, you will be right 50% of the time only if red and green is evenly distributed. But you will be right far less than that if the distribution is 85/15. That's because you are using a random selection process to identify a universe that is not random (i.e., not 50/50). But if you are applying your visual senses, even though they may only 80% accurate, that is not a random process.

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