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OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic

Posted By: joe freedman
Date: Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 4:52 p.m.

In Response To: OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic (joe freedman)

Many thanks to Jake and the other responders. I guess I accept Jake's explanation, although it's still troubling to think that even though the witness has been certified as 80% accurate in color recognition, in fact he is only 41% accurate when he identifies blue cars in the problem situation. Of course, when he identifies a car as green, he is more than 95% accurate.

I'm not sure if the coin flip example is pertinent. If you choose red or green based on a coin flip, you will be right 50% of the time only if red and green is evenly distributed. But you will be right far less than that if the distribution is 85/15. That's because you are using a random selection process to identify a universe that is not random (i.e., not 50/50). But if you are applying your visual senses, even though they may only 80% accurate, that is not a random process.

Messages In This Thread

• OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
  joe freedman -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 4:12 a.m.
  • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
    Jake Jacobs -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 5:11 a.m.
    • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
      Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 7:31 a.m.
      • +1 *NM*
        Jim Stutz -- Sunday, 3 May 2015, at 3:35 a.m.
    • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
      Fatboy -- Sunday, 3 May 2015, at 7:06 p.m.
  • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
    Art Grater -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:40 a.m.
  • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
    rambiz -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 9:50 a.m.
    • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
      Mike Clapsadle -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 11:29 a.m.
      • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:17 p.m.
        • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
          Bob Koca -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:26 p.m.
        • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
          Havard Raddum -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:28 p.m.
          • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
            Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:37 p.m.
        • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
          Mike Clapsadle -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 9:04 p.m.
  • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
    joe freedman -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 4:52 p.m.
    • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 4:57 p.m.
      • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
        joe freedman -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 5:36 p.m.
        • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
          Bob Koca -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:12 p.m.
          • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
            joe freedman -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:21 p.m.
            • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
              Bob Koca -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:44 p.m.
              • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
                joe freedman -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:59 p.m.
                • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
                  Bob Koca -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 7:17 p.m.
                  • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
                    joe freedman -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 8:20 p.m.
    • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:00 p.m.
      • Coin Flip variation
        Bob Koca -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:20 p.m.
        • Coin Flip variation
          Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:30 p.m.
        • Coin Flip variation
          joe freedman -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 7:13 p.m.
          • Coin Flip variation
            Bob Koca -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 8:01 p.m.
          • Coin Flip variation
            Art Grater -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 8:52 p.m.