
BGonline.org Forums
I like my chances/ and so Pineapple Bluff Gammon stuff
Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Monday, 25 July 2016, at 11:52 a.m.
In Response To: Monte Carlo Odds (Phil Simborg)
I have received a few bets and I am getting 71 odds that an American will win.
I am not sure yet who all will play but we do have some fine players here...many have not shown up on the preregistration list yet, and I apologize is I missed someone, but most notable amongst the American players, in no particular order, are:
Falafel, Gus Contos, Matt Reklaitis, Carter, Victor, Alan Grunwald, Max Mozoon, John Rockwell, Doug Mayfield, Ed (the streaker) O'Laughlin, Antoinette, Stefan, Riles, Tuvya, and of course, myself.
I am sure I am missing some, but I am sure most will agree that Falafel, Russell, O'Laughlin and Victor are my best horses, and Mayfield and Grunwald have shown some real strength in Monte Carlo in recent years as well. Stefan is always a force to be reckoned with, and I think Matt Reklaitis is one of the more underrated players in the world.
Having said this, I think 71 is reasonable odds given that no American has won in the past 10 years and given that when I look at the field of other top players, it is very impressive as well.
The top 3 Giants are here: Mochy, Michi and Akiko, as well as Akiko's husband who she says is better than her! By the way, he is a genius mathematician (lawyer by trade)...yesterday when I was playing Akiko some Pineapple Bluffgammon he was able to calculate odds very quickly...the only person I have seem come close to doing it as fast was Joe Russell.
I'll give you a little test. You play BluffGammon with 3 dice and you get to pick your best two. If you choose doubles, you do not get to play them four times, but only two. If you roll triples, you must play them 6 times. (By the way, the roller rolls the dice by covering them with his cup, peeks at that dice, and then decides whether to double or not...hence the "bluff" part of the game.)
So let's say you leave an 8 shot. What are the odds of hitting it? Quick, what are the odds with 3 dice, given the above rules, of hitting an 8?
What are the odds of rolling three 6's? That's easier.
What are the odds of coming in on a 4 point board?
Akiko's husband, and Joe Russell, can calculate these very quickly. That's why I won't play them. Akiko is tough enough (I beat her for the first time yesterday as she usually cleans my clock in this game....my wife told me that Akiko emails her to find out which tournaments I am going to.)

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.