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Error Rates and Edges

Posted By: Bill Calton
Date: Monday, 24 May 2010, at 6:08 p.m.

Addressed in particular to the math wizards out there (most assuredly not me!).

I believe error rate is a measure of your average error per move against bot play.

Is there a way to translate a differential in error rates to a percentage edge in a head-to-head match up?

For example, if player A has error rate of 3 and player B an error rate of 6.

Assume the error rate is a legitimate estimate of player A and B playing strengths, and that luck is equal in the match up.

Does this tell us anything of A's chances to Beat B?

In one money game? In a moderate length match? (say 11 points) In the "long run?" (however you want to define that)

A related question. Does the error rate differential cumulate. And if so, how? If Player A has a 3% edge in play per move, does this mean that in a fifteen move game Player cumulates a 3% edge per each checker play and cube play into a larger advantage for the whole game? Or is it just a 3% edge? Or is the error rate gap not at all relatable to percent edge?

Thanks,

Bill

Messages In This Thread

• Error Rates and Edges
  Bill Calton -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 6:08 p.m.
  • Error Rates and Edges
    Stick -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 7:51 p.m.
    • Or use XG's Elo Calculator
      neilkaz -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 8:14 p.m.
      • Or use XG's Elo Calculator
        Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 9:31 p.m.
        • Or use XG's Elo Calculator
          Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 10:07 p.m.
          • Or use XG's Elo Calculator
            Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 11:37 p.m.
            • XG use the same Elo formula than FIBS
              eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 11:49 p.m.
              • XG use the same Elo formula than FIBS
                Leonardo Jerkovic -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 12:29 a.m.
                • XG use the same Elo formula than FIBS
                  Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 12:57 a.m.
                  • XG use the same Elo formula than FIBS
                    Leonardo Jerkovic -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 1:18 a.m.
                    • XG use the same Elo formula than FIBS
                      eXtreme Gammon -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 2:07 a.m.
      • Or use XG's Elo Calculator, yes 1 PR=33 Elo
        eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 11:47 p.m.
  • Error Rates and Edges
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 8:52 p.m.
    • Error Rates and Edges
      Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 9:56 p.m.
      • Error Rates and Edges
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 10:00 p.m.
        • Error Rates and Edges
          Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 10:05 p.m.
          • Error Rates and Edges
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 10:08 p.m.
            • Error Rates and Edges
              Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 3:06 p.m.
              • Error Rates and Edges
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 6:36 p.m.
                • Error Rates and Edges
                  eXtreme Gammon -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 6:49 p.m.
                  • Error Rates and Edges
                    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 6:54 p.m.
                    • Error Rates and Edges
                      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 7:36 p.m.
                    • Error Rates and Edges
                      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 7:53 p.m.
                      • Error Rates and Edges
                        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 8:01 p.m.
                        • Error Rates and Edges
                          Bill Finneran -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 8:18 p.m.
                        • Error Rates and Edges
                          Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 26 May 2010, at 7:09 p.m.
                        • Error Rates and Edges
                          Christian Plenz -- Thursday, 27 May 2010, at 1:08 p.m.
                      • Error Rates and Edges
                        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 8:11 p.m.
                        • Error Rates and Edges
                          Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 26 May 2010, at 10:05 p.m.
                • Error Rates and Edges
                  Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 7:13 p.m.
            • Error Rates and Edges
              Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 4:11 p.m.
              • Error Rates and Edges
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 6:41 p.m.
  • Error Rates and Edges - - What is "average error"
    Bill Finneran -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 2:23 p.m.