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Error Rates and Edges

Posted By: Bill Calton
Date: Monday, 24 May 2010, at 6:08 p.m.

Addressed in particular to the math wizards out there (most assuredly not me!).

I believe error rate is a measure of your average error per move against bot play.

Is there a way to translate a differential in error rates to a percentage edge in a head-to-head match up?

For example, if player A has error rate of 3 and player B an error rate of 6.

Assume the error rate is a legitimate estimate of player A and B playing strengths, and that luck is equal in the match up.

Does this tell us anything of A's chances to Beat B?

In one money game? In a moderate length match? (say 11 points) In the "long run?" (however you want to define that)

A related question. Does the error rate differential cumulate. And if so, how? If Player A has a 3% edge in play per move, does this mean that in a fifteen move game Player cumulates a 3% edge per each checker play and cube play into a larger advantage for the whole game? Or is it just a 3% edge? Or is the error rate gap not at all relatable to percent edge?

Thanks,

Bill

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