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Error Rates and Edges

Posted By: Christian Plenz
Date: Thursday, 27 May 2010, at 1:08 p.m.

In Response To: Error Rates and Edges (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Lets try to be Bookmaker and we know all of the Players as you described

They all play a Tournamend match lets say 9 Points vs. E We suppose Player E to be 165 ELO better that the others

So the Computer gives us something like 64% or 4-7 Odds as true price

But with our knowledge we can adjust. Player A plays 'bot-style' so we trust in the Computer Odds

Player B does everything what should work in his favour against a strong opponent. He is the fish that has lower TP's and DP's, maybe matches with fewer games where he can produce less errors. And if his errors generally arise from the Cube he maybe has a decent Checker Play. How much is that worth? I Don't know but I make more like 40-60 than 36-64

Player C and D are more difficult for us... Is Player C a strong player with the exception when it goes to big Cubes or is he too cautious in all his decisions!? C1 would be something like the ELO-Computer-Odds or a little bit better and C2 maybe a little bit less, i.e. 34-66

Player D sounds exploitable and it depends on the ability of Player E to detect and exploit his Backgames. In general it sonds very bad for the underdog to play Backgames so the 36-64 should be the maximum, maybe 30-70 is correct or gives us the range to set up this.

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