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Remedial Race Analysis

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 14 December 2013, at 12:48 a.m.

In Response To: Remedial Race Analysis (Mr Majestyk)

Nigel, if I understand your method correctly: 1) Apply the Keith count adjustments for stacks on the 1,2,3 points to the pip counts (but not the adjustment for the empty 4,5, or 6-points and you also don't add 1/7). 2) Use Kleinman or some other racing formula to get a winning chance estimate based on these (partial) Keith-adjusted pip counts. 3)Add 21% of the outfield checkers distance to the 6-point and 0.5% for each outfield crossover to the favorite's winning chances.

Correct?

Messages In This Thread

• Remedial Race Analysis
  Jeremy Bagai -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 5:09 a.m.
  • Remedial Race Analysis
    Rod -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 5:34 a.m.
    • Remedial Race Analysis
      Stick -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 5:49 a.m.
      • Remedial Race Analysis
        Rod -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 6:10 a.m.
        • Stack and straggler
          rew -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 8:55 a.m.
    • Remedial Race Analysis
      onur alan -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 7:17 a.m.
  • Remedial Race Analysis
    Rod -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 6:09 a.m.
  • Remedial Race Analysis
    christian munk-christensen -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 8:12 a.m.
    • Remedial Race Analysis
      Stick -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 8:20 a.m.
      • Remedial Race Analysis
        Bob Koca -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 1:08 p.m.
      • Remedial Race Analysis
        christian munk-christensen -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 1:20 p.m.
      • Remedial Race Analysis
        Bob Koca -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 4:13 p.m.
      • Remedial Race Analysis
        Sam Pottle -- Saturday, 14 December 2013, at 9:21 p.m.
    • Remedial Race Analysis
      Igor -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 8:38 a.m.
      • Remedial Race Analysis
        christian munk-christensen -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 1:06 p.m.
  • Remedial Race Analysis
    smcrtorchs -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 10:48 a.m.
    • Remedial Race Analysis
      rew -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 11:17 a.m.
  • Remedial Race Analysis
    Mr Majestyk -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 2:10 p.m.
    • Remedial Race Analysis
      John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 14 December 2013, at 12:48 a.m.
      • Remedial Race Analysis
        Mr Majestyk -- Saturday, 14 December 2013, at 11:50 a.m.
  • Determining Jeremy's EPC: 84.6
    Paul Weaver -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 4:16 p.m.
    • Determining Jeremy's EPC: 84.6
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 7:28 p.m.
    • Determining Jeremy's EPC: 84.6
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 7:52 p.m.
  • Remedial Race Analysis
    John O'Hagan -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 4:19 p.m.
  • Remedial Race Analysis: Summary and Conclusions
    Jeremy Bagai -- Monday, 16 December 2013, at 2:36 a.m.
    • Link
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 16 December 2013, at 5:48 a.m.