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Remedial Race Analysis

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Saturday, 14 December 2013, at 11:50 a.m.

In Response To: Remedial Race Analysis (John O'Hagan)

John, You'll need to adjust for gaps on the 4,5 & 6pts. You are correct NOT to add the 1/7 rule. The final adjustment in my method is to add 7 pips. For instance, in Jeremy's position I would adjust for blue as follows:

Add 8 for the extras on the ace, add 2 for the deuce, add 2 for the gaps on 4 & 5 plus adding a further 7 pips = 19.

On the surface, white's position looks straightforward but you'll need to delve a little deeper to find a more exacting estimate. 8 is a good approximate but 8.1 is a little better. The classic flat position with a basic count of 75 pips has approximately 10 pips of wastage. In Jeremy's position, white has yet to bear-off and has a basic count of 66 pips. Therefore, 75-66 = 9, 9/75 = 12%, 9x12%, 1.08+7 = 8.1 rounded up. I'd estimate that white's position is 88% pip and 12% flat. This little application I'm guessing only works when neither side has borne off.

NBM

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