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10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 5:06 p.m.

In Response To: 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes (Bob Koca)

I think mainly the analysis is suspect for both sides during the "snake." I had Gnubg analyze the last game with both 2-ply and 3-ply. That didn't make much difference in error rate. Many plays by both players were analyzed as huge blundrs losing 10%-25% MWC which cannot possibly be correct, in my judgment.

It seems likely that time pressure was already affecting both players in the six games preceding the last one. The next to last game was Crawford. In the preceding six games, there were many cube errors (per 2-ply analysis, assuming equal players as always):

Wrong Drop by Loero-0.261
Missed Double by Loero-0.001
Missed Double by Loero-0.013
Wrong Drop by Mochy-0.004
Wrong Drop by Mochy-0.057
Missed Double by Mochy-0.009
Missed Double by Mochy-0.036
Missed Double by Mochy-0.015
Missed Double by Mochy-0.166
Missed Double by Mochy-0.048
Missed Double by Mochy-0.032
Missed Double by Mochy-0.011
Missed Double by Mochy-0.008

The score (after 0 games) is: Loero 7, Mochy 7 (match to 11 points)

Move number 7: Mochy doubles to 2

Loero160

2O ' '2X '4X '2X ' '1X5O

1X '2O '2O2O2O ' ' ' '4X
Mochy155
Position ID: mGfkAVDMNvABMA Match ID: cBFgAXAAOAAE

Loero rejects

Alert: wrong pass ( -0.2612)! [very bad]

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.4666(Money: +0.4019)
0.6206 0.2467 0.0152 - 0.3794 0.0965 0.0048
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.7388
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.2612
3.No double +0.6676 -0.0712
Proper cube action:Double, take

The score (after 1 game) is: Loero 7, Mochy 8 (match to 11 points)

Move number 20: Loero doubles to 2

Loero87

 ' '2X3X3X3X1X '2X '1X2O

1O ' '3O2O4O '2O1O ' ' '
Mochy98
Position ID: cXsWBgDs7jIBAA Match ID: MBlgAXAAQAAE

Mochy rejects

Alert: wrong pass ( -0.0043)! [doubtful]

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.5798(Money: +0.5798)
0.7899 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2101 0.0000 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.9957
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.0043
3.No double +0.8575 -0.1381
Proper cube action:Double, take

The score (after 2 games) is: Loero 8, Mochy 8 (match to 11 points)

Move number 16: Loero doubles to 2

Loero122

 ' '2X2X2X2X1X2X ' ' '3O

1X '2O2O2O3O '2O ' ' '3X
Mochy122
Position ID: bDuDA0BsW4MDIA Match ID: MBlgAYAAQAAE

Mochy rejects

Alert: wrong pass ( -0.0572)! [bad]

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.5492(Money: +0.4840)
0.6794 0.2102 0.0039 - 0.3206 0.0848 0.0040
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.9428
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.0572
3.No double +0.7518 -0.1910
Proper cube action:Double, take

The score (after 3 games) is: Loero 9, Mochy 8 (match to 11 points)

Move number 11: Mochy to play 53

Loero159

 '2X ' ' '4X '3X2O ' '3O

2X '2O2O1X3O '2O ' ' '3X
Mochy144
Position ID: hufggDBszuAYQA Match ID: cIluAZAAQAAE

Mochy moves bar/20 8/5*

Alert: missed double ( -0.1664)! [very bad]

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.4414(Money: +0.4230)
0.6533 0.1911 0.0140 - 0.3467 0.0864 0.0024
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, pass +1.0000
2.Double, take +1.0335 +0.0335
3.No double +0.8336 -0.1664
Proper cube action:Double, pass

Alert: bad move ( -0.069)

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 bar/22 13/8 +0.8248
0.6448 0.1742 0.0116 - 0.3552 0.0853 0.0017
2 2 bar/20 8/5* +0.7554 ( -0.0693)
0.6346 0.2225 0.0229 - 0.3654 0.1054 0.0037
3 2 bar/20 6/3 +0.7273 ( -0.0974)
0.6134 0.1618 0.0117 - 0.3866 0.1015 0.0025

The score (after 3 games) is: Loero 9, Mochy 8 (match to 11 points)

Move number 13: Mochy to play 51

Loero158

 '2X ' '1O4X '3X2O ' '3O

1X1X2O2O1X3O '1O ' ' '3X
Mochy156
Position ID: hufggChsTnAMQQ Match ID: cIlmAZAAQAAE

Mochy moves bar/20 6/5*

Alert: missed double ( -0.0483)! [bad]

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.1547(Money: +0.1835)
0.5629 0.1778 0.0103 - 0.4371 0.1254 0.0051
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.5108
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.4892
3.No double +0.4626 -0.0483
Proper cube action:Double, take

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 bar/20 6/5* +0.5581
0.5925 0.1872 0.0136 - 0.4075 0.1020 0.0026
2 2 bar/24 13/8 +0.4965 ( -0.0616)
0.5686 0.1580 0.0085 - 0.4314 0.1264 0.0037
3 2 bar/20 8/7 +0.2560 ( -0.3021)
0.5299 0.1212 0.0055 - 0.4701 0.1044 0.0025

The score (after 4 games) is: Loero 9, Mochy 9 (match to 11 points)

Move number 7: Loero on roll, cube decision?

Loero152

2O ' ' '2X4X1X3X ' ' '3O

2X '2O2O '2O1O3O ' ' '3X
Mochy144
Position ID: bNbBATCw18EBMA Match ID: MAFgAZAASAAE

Loero moves 24/20(2) 13/5

Alert: missed double ( -0.0129)! [doubtful]

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.1414(Money: +0.1153)
0.5411 0.1785 0.0098 - 0.4589 0.1461 0.0092
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.2319
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.7681
3.No double +0.2189 -0.0129
Proper cube action:Double, take

Alert: very bad move ( -0.114)

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 24/20(2) 8/4(2) +0.4798
0.6132 0.1878 0.0083 - 0.3868 0.0826 0.0022
2 2 24/16(2) +0.4225 ( -0.0572)
0.5813 0.1338 0.0051 - 0.4187 0.1253 0.0026
3 2 24/20(2) 6/2(2) +0.3912 ( -0.0886)
0.5713 0.1690 0.0062 - 0.4287 0.0832 0.0019
4 2 24/20(2) 13/5 +0.3660 ( -0.1138)
0.5682 0.1722 0.0069 - 0.4318 0.0807 0.0023

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