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10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 5:06 p.m.

In Response To: 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes (Bob Koca)

I think mainly the analysis is suspect for both sides during the "snake." I had Gnubg analyze the last game with both 2-ply and 3-ply. That didn't make much difference in error rate. Many plays by both players were analyzed as huge blundrs losing 10%-25% MWC which cannot possibly be correct, in my judgment.

It seems likely that time pressure was already affecting both players in the six games preceding the last one. The next to last game was Crawford. In the preceding six games, there were many cube errors (per 2-ply analysis, assuming equal players as always):

Wrong Drop by Loero	-0.261
Missed Double by Loero	-0.001
Missed Double by Loero	-0.013
Wrong Drop by Mochy	-0.004
Wrong Drop by Mochy	-0.057
Missed Double by Mochy	-0.009
Missed Double by Mochy	-0.036
Missed Double by Mochy	-0.015
Missed Double by Mochy	-0.166
Missed Double by Mochy	-0.048
Missed Double by Mochy	-0.032
Missed Double by Mochy	-0.011
Missed Double by Mochy	-0.008

The score (after 0 games) is: Loero 7, Mochy 7 (match to 11 points)

Move number 7: Mochy doubles to 2

Loero	160
Mochy	155
Position ID: mGfkAVDMNvABMA Match ID: cBFgAXAAOAAE

• Loero rejects

Alert: wrong pass ( -0.2612)! [very bad]

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.4666	(Money: +0.4019)
	0.6206 0.2467 0.0152 - 0.3794 0.0965 0.0048
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.7388
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.2612
3.	No double	+0.6676	-0.0712
Proper cube action:		Double, take

The score (after 1 game) is: Loero 7, Mochy 8 (match to 11 points)

Move number 20: Loero doubles to 2

Loero	87
Mochy	98
Position ID: cXsWBgDs7jIBAA Match ID: MBlgAXAAQAAE

• Mochy rejects

Alert: wrong pass ( -0.0043)! [doubtful]

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.5798	(Money: +0.5798)
	0.7899 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2101 0.0000 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9957
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0043
3.	No double	+0.8575	-0.1381
Proper cube action:		Double, take

The score (after 2 games) is: Loero 8, Mochy 8 (match to 11 points)

Move number 16: Loero doubles to 2

Loero	122
Mochy	122
Position ID: bDuDA0BsW4MDIA Match ID: MBlgAYAAQAAE

• Mochy rejects

Alert: wrong pass ( -0.0572)! [bad]

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.5492	(Money: +0.4840)
	0.6794 0.2102 0.0039 - 0.3206 0.0848 0.0040
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9428
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0572
3.	No double	+0.7518	-0.1910
Proper cube action:		Double, take

The score (after 3 games) is: Loero 9, Mochy 8 (match to 11 points)

Move number 11: Mochy to play 53

Loero	159
Mochy	144
Position ID: hufggDBszuAYQA Match ID: cIluAZAAQAAE

• Mochy moves bar/20 8/5*

Alert: missed double ( -0.1664)! [very bad]

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.4414	(Money: +0.4230)
	0.6533 0.1911 0.0140 - 0.3467 0.0864 0.0024
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0335	+0.0335
3.	No double	+0.8336	-0.1664
Proper cube action:		Double, pass

Alert: bad move ( -0.069)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	bar/22 13/8	+0.8248
			0.6448 0.1742 0.0116 - 0.3552 0.0853 0.0017
•	2	2	bar/20 8/5*	+0.7554 ( -0.0693)
			0.6346 0.2225 0.0229 - 0.3654 0.1054 0.0037
	3	2	bar/20 6/3	+0.7273 ( -0.0974)
			0.6134 0.1618 0.0117 - 0.3866 0.1015 0.0025

The score (after 3 games) is: Loero 9, Mochy 8 (match to 11 points)

Move number 13: Mochy to play 51

Loero	158
Mochy	156
Position ID: hufggChsTnAMQQ Match ID: cIlmAZAAQAAE

• Mochy moves bar/20 6/5*

Alert: missed double ( -0.0483)! [bad]

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.1547	(Money: +0.1835)
	0.5629 0.1778 0.0103 - 0.4371 0.1254 0.0051
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.5108
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.4892
3.	No double	+0.4626	-0.0483
Proper cube action:		Double, take

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/20 6/5*	+0.5581
			0.5925 0.1872 0.0136 - 0.4075 0.1020 0.0026
	2	2	bar/24 13/8	+0.4965 ( -0.0616)
			0.5686 0.1580 0.0085 - 0.4314 0.1264 0.0037
	3	2	bar/20 8/7	+0.2560 ( -0.3021)
			0.5299 0.1212 0.0055 - 0.4701 0.1044 0.0025

The score (after 4 games) is: Loero 9, Mochy 9 (match to 11 points)

Move number 7: Loero on roll, cube decision?

Loero	152
Mochy	144
Position ID: bNbBATCw18EBMA Match ID: MAFgAZAASAAE

• Loero moves 24/20(2) 13/5

Alert: missed double ( -0.0129)! [doubtful]

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.1414	(Money: +0.1153)
	0.5411 0.1785 0.0098 - 0.4589 0.1461 0.0092
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.2319
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.7681
3.	No double	+0.2189	-0.0129
Proper cube action:		Double, take

Alert: very bad move ( -0.114)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	24/20(2) 8/4(2)	+0.4798
			0.6132 0.1878 0.0083 - 0.3868 0.0826 0.0022
	2	2	24/16(2)	+0.4225 ( -0.0572)
			0.5813 0.1338 0.0051 - 0.4187 0.1253 0.0026
	3	2	24/20(2) 6/2(2)	+0.3912 ( -0.0886)
			0.5713 0.1690 0.0062 - 0.4287 0.0832 0.0019
•	4	2	24/20(2) 13/5	+0.3660 ( -0.1138)
			0.5682 0.1722 0.0069 - 0.4318 0.0807 0.0023

Messages In This Thread

• The most exciting game I've ever seen
  AdamStocks -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 6:02 a.m.
  • The most exciting game I've ever seen
    AdamStocks -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 6:07 a.m.
    • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
      Marv Porten -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 6:23 a.m.
      • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
        Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 1:20 p.m.
        • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
          Bob Koca -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 4:22 p.m.
          • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
            Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 5:06 p.m.
            • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
              Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 6:47 p.m.
              • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
                Mochy -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 11:33 p.m.
                • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
                  Timothy Chow -- Monday, 2 February 2015, at 9:35 p.m.
            • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
              Mochy -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 11:35 p.m.
            • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
              Martin -- Monday, 2 February 2015, at 9:23 p.m.
          • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
            Stick -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 5:20 p.m.
            • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
              Michael Petch -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 5:23 p.m.
              • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
                Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 5:54 p.m.
              • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
                Stick -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 9:46 p.m.
            • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
              Jason Lee -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 11:52 p.m.
              • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
                Bob Koca -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 11:56 p.m.
              • PR's
                garyo -- Monday, 2 February 2015, at 8:05 a.m.
              • Victor was right
                Phil Simborg -- Monday, 2 February 2015, at 8:38 p.m.
                • Victor was right
                  Bob Koca -- Monday, 2 February 2015, at 10:02 p.m.
                  • Victor was right
                    AdamStocks -- Monday, 2 February 2015, at 11:25 p.m.
                    • Victor was right
                      Martin -- Tuesday, 3 February 2015, at 7:53 a.m.
                      • Victor was right
                        AdamStocks -- Tuesday, 3 February 2015, at 9:15 a.m.
                • Victor was right
                  David Rennie -- Tuesday, 3 February 2015, at 12:25 a.m.
                  • Victor was right
                    AdamStocks -- Tuesday, 3 February 2015, at 1:24 a.m.
          • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
            Christian Plenz -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 9:11 p.m.
        • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
          Sean Garber -- Sunday, 8 February 2015, at 5:00 p.m.
          • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
            Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 8 February 2015, at 6:26 p.m.
            • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
              Sean Garber -- Sunday, 8 February 2015, at 10:29 p.m.
              • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
                Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 8 February 2015, at 11:51 p.m.
              • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
                Timothy Chow -- Monday, 9 February 2015, at 11:01 p.m.
          • synopsis of bot opinions
            Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 9 February 2015, at 7:20 p.m.
            • Spelling
              Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 9 February 2015, at 7:29 p.m.
            • synopsis of bot opinions
              Sean Garber -- Monday, 9 February 2015, at 9:29 p.m.
              • synopsis of bot opinions
                Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 9 February 2015, at 9:45 p.m.
                • synopsis of bot opinions
                  Sean Garber -- Monday, 9 February 2015, at 11:12 p.m.
                  • synopsis of bot opinions
                    Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 9 February 2015, at 11:42 p.m.
          • 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes
            Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 3:39 a.m.
  • The most exciting game I've ever seen
    Jeremy Bagai -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 6:15 a.m.
    • Bad Sportsmanship To Complicate Game When Opponent Short On Time?
      Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 6:35 a.m.
      • Bad Sportsmanship To Complicate Game When Opponent Short On Time?
        AdamStocks -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 7:04 a.m.
        • Bad Sportsmanship To Complicate Game When Opponent Short On Time?
          Art Grater -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 7:22 a.m.
          • Bad Sportsmanship To Complicate Game When Opponent Short On Time?
            AdamStocks -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 7:33 a.m.
            • Bad Sportsmanship To Complicate Game When Opponent Short On Time?
              Martin -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 10:48 a.m.
      • Bad Sportsmanship To Complicate Game When Opponent Short On Time?
        falafel -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 7:14 a.m.
      • Do people still think like that nowadays?
        Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 7:17 a.m.
      • Bad Sportsmanship To Complicate Game When Opponent Short On Time?
        higonefive -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 9:15 a.m.
        • Bad Sportsmanship To Complicate Game When Opponent Short On Time?
          Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 6:00 p.m.
      • Bad Sportsmanship To Complicate Game When Opponent Short On Time?
        Phil simborg -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 10:33 a.m.
        • Clarification
          Perry Gartner -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 4:11 p.m.
      • Bad Sportsmanship To Complicate Game When Opponent Short On Time?
        Frank Berger -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 1:23 p.m.
      • Bad Sportsmanship To Complicate Game When Opponent Short On Time?
        Tom Keith -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 2:04 p.m.
        • Responding to Tom Keith
          Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 2:33 p.m.
          • Responding to Tom Keith
            Tom Keith -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 3:38 p.m.
            • Responding to Tom Keith
              Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 8:00 p.m.
        • Bad Sportsmanship To Complicate Game When Opponent Short On Time?
          Maik Stiebler -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 5:29 p.m.
      • ROFLMAO
        neilkaz -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 3:34 p.m.
      • Bad Sportsmanship To Complicate Game When Opponent Short On Time?
        Barry Silliman -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 3:36 p.m.
      • Bad Sportsmanship To Complicate Game When Opponent Short On Time?
        Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 3:58 p.m.
        • Kit's 1996 World Cup game
          Tom Keith -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 4:33 p.m.
      • Clock management
        garyo -- Monday, 2 February 2015, at 7:40 a.m.
    • The most exciting game I've ever seen
      Seth -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 4:35 p.m.
      • The most exciting game I've ever seen
        Bob Koca -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 5:52 p.m.
        • The most exciting game I've ever seen
          Seth -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 10:07 p.m.
          • The most exciting game I've ever seen
            Bob Koca -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 10:14 p.m.
      • The most exciting game I've ever seen
        Mochy -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 11:47 p.m.
  • The most exciting game I've ever seen
    Phil simborg -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 10:21 a.m.
    • The most exciting game I've ever seen
      AdamStocks -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 10:48 a.m.
      • The most exciting game I've ever seen
        Alex Schofield -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 12:34 p.m.
        • The most exciting game I've ever seen
          Mochy -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 11:45 p.m.
  • clock rules
    Bob Koca -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 5:50 p.m.
    • clock rules
      Barry Silliman -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 6:11 p.m.
      • clock rules
        Bob Koca -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 6:35 p.m.
      • clock rules
        Tom Keith -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 6:41 p.m.
        • clock rules
          Barry Silliman -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 7:01 p.m.
    • clock rules
      Mike Clapsadle -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 6:37 p.m.
      • clock rules
        Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 6:41 p.m.
      • clock rules
        Mochy -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 10:28 p.m.
      • clock rules
        Martin -- Monday, 2 February 2015, at 9:32 p.m.
    • clock rules – Mochy & Loero did a pretty good job.
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 2 February 2015, at 5:48 a.m.
      • clock rules – Mochy & Loero did a pretty good job.
        Martin -- Monday, 2 February 2015, at 9:36 p.m.
        • clock rules – Mochy & Loero did a pretty good job.
          Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 3 February 2015, at 12:11 a.m.
          • clock rules – Mochy & Loero did a pretty good job.
            Barry Silliman -- Tuesday, 3 February 2015, at 12:51 a.m.
    • clock rules
      garyo -- Monday, 2 February 2015, at 7:45 a.m.
      • clock rules
        Taper_Mike -- Monday, 2 February 2015, at 10:47 a.m.
    • clock rules
      Robert Wachtel -- Monday, 9 February 2015, at 10:25 p.m.
      • My apologies
        neilkaz -- Monday, 9 February 2015, at 11:20 p.m.
        • Illegal moves & delay time
          Taper_Mike -- Monday, 9 February 2015, at 11:43 p.m.
          • Illegal moves & delay time
            neilkaz -- Monday, 9 February 2015, at 11:56 p.m.
          • Illegal moves & delay time
            Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 7:37 a.m.
        • My apologies
          Colin Owen -- Monday, 9 February 2015, at 11:43 p.m.
        • My apologies
          Robert Wachtel -- Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 2:59 a.m.
  • What I thought over the board when I double slotted (long)
    Mochy -- Tuesday, 3 February 2015, at 6:03 a.m.
    • Wow, this is the best post of the year here!
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 12:14 a.m.
      • Wow, this is the best post of the year here!
        Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 1:59 a.m.
        • Wow, this is the best post of the year here!
          mochy -- Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 9:02 a.m.
          • Wow, this is the best post of the year here!
            Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 9:52 a.m.
            • Wow, this is the best post of the year here!
              Bill Finneran -- Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 3:00 p.m.
    • What I thought over the board when I double slotted (long)
      Phil simborg -- Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 4:19 a.m.
      • What I thought over the board when I double slotted (long)
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 7:33 a.m.
        • What I thought over the board when I double slotted (long)
          Phil Simborg -- Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 3:09 p.m.
          • What I thought over the board when I double slotted (long)
            Coolrey -- Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 9:21 p.m.
        • What I thought over the board when I double slotted (long)
          Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 3:59 p.m.
          • What I thought over the board when I double slotted (long)
            vidvis -- Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 5:35 p.m.
            • What I thought over the board when I double slotted (long)
              Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 7:46 p.m.
              • What I thought over the board when I double slotted (long)
                vidvis -- Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 8:06 p.m.
    • What I thought over the board when I double slotted (long)
      Coolrey -- Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 8:59 p.m.
  • The most exciting game I've ever seen- FYI
    gudgen -- Wednesday, 4 February 2015, at 8:10 p.m.
    • The most exciting game I've ever seen- FYI
      mochy -- Thursday, 5 February 2015, at 1:59 a.m.
    • The most exciting game I've ever seen- FYI
      Phil Simborg -- Sunday, 8 February 2015, at 9:24 a.m.