Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: Live PRs (Stick)
Date: Sunday, 9 February 2014, at 2:01 a.m.
In Response To: Live PRs (Stick)
The misrepresentation is taking 5 matches (one of which was notated to the wrong score) and calling it an 'average', and noting that this live 'average' over the past two years is substantially higher than my usual average, and particularly the online average of 2.99 that Iancho has repeatedly posted here.
My average PR has been pretty consistent over 20, 50, or 100 or 200 matches, whether online, live, or wherever. Whether I am rested or tired. It doesn't really change much. 0.1 here, 0.2 there. Not differences of 1.0 or 2.0. I am not saying that I am a great player--far from it. What I am saying is that the data are out there and it pretty much speaks for itself. You can compare however many of my live matches with Mochy's or Falafel's or yourself or whomever you so choose. You can compare their live averages with their online averages after 20, 50, 100 matches, and everything will look pretty similar.
The misrepresentation is in pretending there is a land where 2.9 players sometimes 'average' 3.8, and 2.0 players sometimes 'average' 4.2. They don't. That is a fantasy. Your PR reflects your level of backgammon understanding.
It is a disservice to players who are actually getting out there and posting the best PRs that they can to pretend that PRs are some murky concept that can change at any time. They are not.
As far as 2.0 goes, I am not close, even when I am rested and even if I got to cherry pick and throw out my worst matches, I still wouldn't be all that close. In fact, if I did cherry pick and threw out my 4 worst matches in that relatively small sample of 23 matches (so 17% of the total sample)--all the matches where I was over 4 PR--I would still only be averaging a 2.60 PR in the remaining 19. Mochy is not close.
If you can play 2.0 when you are rested or under whatever circumstances you stipulate, then your level of backgammon understanding is simply in a league of its own that far outclasses Mochy or myself or anyone else. So if that is the case then you are clearly the best player ever, bar none. Given that, it is bizarre that you would think Mochy is a PR favorite against you.
I think it is silly to talk about how you want to bet on PR and quiz results if you aren't willing to come to the tournament and compete. If you want to bet, you can just show up and bet instead of talking about it on the boards. If you are the best player it won't take long at all to post superhuman PRs and receive all the deserved recognition, prize money, or whatever else.
I think it is even sillier to discuss others' inflated live PRs when you haven't played a tournament in over a year and your most recent recorded live results were 2 years ago with a 4.2 PR and a 3.9 checker PR. The online PRs and live PRs and long-run PRs and short-run PRs of every other top player all stack up the same. What you see is what you get. There is no 2.9 player out there who is averaging 3.8 live.
I think that if you want to talk, you should do it over the board.
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