
BGonline.org Forums
Live PRs
Posted By: Henrik Bukkjaer
Date: Monday, 10 February 2014, at 9:17 p.m.
In Response To: Live PRs (Henrik Bukkjaer)
Sorry, just saw a calc err in my post...
For some reason I squared the numbers instead of rooting them, to calc the chance of reaching the final from either side.
Correct numbers for a .55 win and .80 pr advantage are:
Win both sides: 8.5%
Win only one side: 50.8%
Not reaching the final: 40.7%
Which of course then translates to a 50% chance of winning the 8 player tournament  not 66%.

Indeed, if the numbers are for Mochy: 55% to win and 75% for PR progression each round, then each of the 7 other players (being equal) will have a 8.3% chance to win the tournament, compared to the 9.1% chance they would have had it been a regular cup  winners progressing.

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