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Error Rates

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 10:21 p.m.

In Response To: Error Rates (Jason Lee)

I think he'd tell you "I'm an excellent backgammon player".

Seriously, I believe such a player would probably have a true error rate of something like -1.5. Meaning outplaying GNU 2-Ply by 1.5.

Lets say that some top human player plays with an ER of 3.0, then right away he needs to overcome an ER difficiency of 4.5 against Rainman. How much is the human factor worth? Depends on the opponent, but not anywhere close to an average of 4.5 IMO.

Top humans anticipating cube errors and complicating positions will never match technically perfect play in an open tournament. Perhaps it might against some fish in the first round, but once the field shrinks and there are few fish left, these human factor advantages start to evaporate and we are left with Rainman clearly dominating the field.

It must be clear that everyone is a dog head to head against Rainman himself. And that is a tough advantage for anyone to overcome.

Messages In This Thread

• Error Rates
  Stick -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 8:42 a.m.
  • Error Rates
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 9:17 a.m.
    • Error Rates
      Stick -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 9:24 a.m.
      • Error Rates
        Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 10:29 a.m.
        • Error Rates
          Stick -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 10:41 a.m.
    • Error Rates
      Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 3:20 p.m.
      • Error Rates
        Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 4:39 p.m.
        • Error Rates
          Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 6:04 p.m.
          • Error Rates
            Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 6:16 p.m.
    • Error Rates
      Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 5:33 p.m.
  • Error Rates
    mikeg -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 2:53 p.m.
  • Error Rates
    Rod -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 2:57 p.m.
  • Error Rates
    David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 3:04 p.m.
  • Error Rates
    Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 3:15 p.m.
    • Error Rates
      David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 3:20 p.m.
      • Error Rates
        Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 3:29 p.m.
    • Error Rates
      Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 4:32 p.m.
  • Excuses / Reasons
    David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 4:20 p.m.
  • Error Rates
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 4:24 p.m.
    • Error Rates
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 8:16 p.m.
    • Error Rates
      Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 8:22 p.m.
  • Error Rates
    Coolrey -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 4:54 p.m.
    • Error Rates
      Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 5:27 p.m.
    • Error Rates
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 6:49 p.m.
      • Error Rates
        Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 7:11 p.m.
        • Error Rates
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 8:06 p.m.
          • Error Rates
            Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 8:10 p.m.
            • Error Rates
              Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 8:51 p.m.
              • Error Rates
                Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 9:29 p.m.
                • Error Rates
                  Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 10:28 p.m.
                  • Error Rates
                    Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 11:32 p.m.
                    • At what ER are you considered a fish?
                      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Wednesday, 29 April 2009, at 7:52 a.m.
                      • At what ER are you considered a fish?
                        Rod -- Wednesday, 29 April 2009, at 1:32 p.m.
                      • At what ER are you considered a fish?
                        Frank_N_Stein -- Wednesday, 29 April 2009, at 3:25 p.m.
                        • At what ER are you considered a fish?
                          Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 29 April 2009, at 3:52 p.m.
                          • At what ER are you considered a fish?
                            Frank_N_Stein -- Wednesday, 29 April 2009, at 8:42 p.m.
                            • At what ER are you considered a fish?
                              David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 29 April 2009, at 9:48 p.m.
                              • At what ER are you considered a fish?
                                Frank_N_Stein -- Wednesday, 29 April 2009, at 10:41 p.m.
                            • At what ER are you considered a fish?
                              adambulldog -- Thursday, 30 April 2009, at 3:42 a.m.
                              • At what ER are you considered a fish?
                                Frank_N_Stein -- Thursday, 30 April 2009, at 4:39 a.m.
                              • At what ER are you considered a fish?
                                Keene -- Thursday, 30 April 2009, at 6:48 a.m.
                            • At what ER are you considered a fish?
                              phil Simborg -- Thursday, 30 April 2009, at 4:27 p.m.
                        • At what ER are you considered a fish?
                          Rich Munitz -- Friday, 1 May 2009, at 1:30 a.m.
                          • At what ER are you considered a fish?
                            Christian Munk-Christensen -- Friday, 1 May 2009, at 7:49 a.m.
                      • if you look around ---
                        garyo -- Wednesday, 29 April 2009, at 4:03 p.m.
              • Error Rates
                Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 9:37 p.m.
              • Error Rates
                Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 10:21 p.m.
            • Error Rates
              Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 10:54 p.m.
          • Error Rates
            Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 8:48 p.m.
            • Error Rates
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 9:12 p.m.
            • Error Rates
              Coolrey -- Wednesday, 29 April 2009, at 11:26 p.m.
              • Error Rates
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 29 April 2009, at 11:46 p.m.
      • Error Rates
        Stick -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 8:22 p.m.
        • Error Rates
          Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 9:34 p.m.
          • Error Rates
            Stick -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 9:36 p.m.
            • Error Rates
              Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 10:46 p.m.
    • Error Rates
      Marv Porten -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 7:20 p.m.
    • Error Rates
      Stick -- Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 8:17 p.m.
      • Error Rates
        Havard Raddum -- Wednesday, 29 April 2009, at 8:13 a.m.
        • Error Rates
          misja -- Wednesday, 29 April 2009, at 10:55 a.m.