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BGonline.org Forums
Real Backgammon
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Real Backgammon (Timothy Chow)
Date: Tuesday, 27 April 2010, at 7:45 a.m.
Hey Tim,
The second question is whether ten 0.010 errors are equivalent to one 0.100 error.
The second question is what I took you to be asking in your previous message. My answer is that they are equivalent only in terms of equity,
Ok. Then my previous message has been understood, I hope, because that's pretty much what I said. A " 0.010 error in ... each game of a 10 game session ... [is] the equivalent of a 0.100 blunder over the course of the session."
not necessarily in terms of the results you will probably observe.
"Not necessarily" seems to be the main phrase. Yes, no results are guaranteed. Is that what you mean? Again, Bill made a comment along those lines, which I do agree with, but didn't address -- the best player doesn't always win, good play isn't always rewarded, the dice can change a game in a moment. We all know that. But as far as I can fathom, short- and long-run results have nothing to with how much equity you give up by making the same/similar small error repeatedly. One small opening error does not mean you will lose the game, or that you will make bigger errors later on. But over the course of a session, a match, a lifetime, repeated small mistakes add up to a lot of equity lost.
If "probably observe" is introducing a new point that one large error and 10 small "equivalent" errors should somehow have different effects on results, then I would not agree with that.
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