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Ohio State ABT Results/and a question

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Monday, 30 March 2015, at 6:16 p.m.

In Response To: Ohio State ABT Results/and a question (Stick)

What does the simulation show comparing how hard it is to make it to the finals of the last chance compared to either?

Are asking what the probability of winning the Main (undefeated) side is versus the probability of winning the Second Chance side? That number depends on the assumptions you make about the size of the tournament and the distribution of the talent and which player you are talking about.

One simulation I did started with 64 players, with ratings evenly distributed between 1700 and 2000. Each match was 11 points. The probability that the strongest player (the one rated 2000) reached the finals of the Main was 5.08%; the probability he reached the finals of the Second Chance was 5.31%; and the probability that he won the tournament (assuming a single-match final) was 5.94%.

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