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An "equally likely result" is not the same as an "equally worthy accomplishment"

Posted By: Jim Stutz
Date: Tuesday, 31 March 2015, at 2:09 a.m.

In Response To: Ohio State ABT Results/and a question (Taper_Mike)

"So if we assume all players are equally matched, then the odds of winning the Main Flight are identical to the odds of winning the Fighters Bracket. As David succinctly explained, both are 1/n, where n is the number of entrants.

That is a strong argument for playing a single match to decide the winner."

The fact that it’s equally unlikely to win the Fighter's Bracket as it is to win the Main Flight does not justify putting the two finalists on equal footing. This equivalency is a red herring in any fair-minded discussion about how to conduct the final round. It’s like arguing that it’s equally unlikely, in a Swiss format, to go 1-7 as it is to go 7-1, and that, accordingly, these two players should be in a competitively equivalent position after 8 matches.

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