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PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)

Posted By: Rick Janowski
Date: Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:11 a.m.

In Response To: PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative) (Matt Cohn-Geier)

This could have some scope I think. It seems a little like the use if statistical theory to generate race formula. If the difference in overall average MWC cost (or PR) is zero then the likely probability of winning is about 50%. If it is possible to estimate the standard deviation of the mean of the difference, probability of winning could be evaluated from the normal distribution or logistic distribution which is used in the Elo formula and gives similar results.

One possible issue is that the distribution will be naturally skewed. However this is also the case with races (because of doublets) yet assuming symmetrical distribution results in very small errors.

Standard deviation or variance of PR appears to be generally proportional to some function of average PR from investigations I made a few years ago. However, there could be other factors relating to the discipline/consistency of the players. Having a lower SD will generally benefit the favourite player, and vice versa.

Messages In This Thread

• PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
  __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:04 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:21 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:29 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:03 p.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:47 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Colin Owen -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 3:01 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:37 p.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 8:10 p.m.
                • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                  __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:52 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                    Schigolch -- Tuesday, 23 February 2016, at 11:27 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:17 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:43 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:27 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:57 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 6:27 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        vidvis -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 7:43 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 1:35 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:43 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:12 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:13 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Rick Janowski -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 8:36 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:49 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 10:06 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 10:09 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 10:35 p.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 11:22 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 11:58 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:28 a.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:32 a.m.
                • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                  christian munk-christensen -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 7:27 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 7:53 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                    Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 9:22 a.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:42 a.m.
              • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                Bob Koca -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 9:27 p.m.
                • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                  Stick -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 10:03 p.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 11:40 p.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Colin Owen -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:00 a.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:34 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:07 a.m.
                • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                  Rick Janowski -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 10:41 p.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Tom Keith -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:25 a.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                      Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 8:39 a.m.
                      • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                        Colin Owen -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:40 p.m.
                        • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                          Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 4:13 p.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Bob Koca -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:31 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Chris Yep -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 5:46 a.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                      Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 11:42 a.m.
                      • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                        Chris Yep -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:17 p.m.
                      • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                        Bob Koca -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 5:15 p.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management) Graphical Representation
                      Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 5:01 p.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management)/Other sports
                      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 5:20 p.m.
                      • PR or Luck? (Time management)/Other sports
                        Colin Owen -- Sunday, 14 February 2016, at 4:42 p.m.
                        • PR or Luck? (Time management)/Other sports
                          Colin Owen -- Sunday, 14 February 2016, at 4:44 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:19 a.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              johnk -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 6:46 p.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 6:55 p.m.
                • Thanks *NM*
                  johnk -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 8:51 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:11 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:07 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 4:18 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 4:34 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:21 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:23 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:14 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Igor -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:30 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Chris Yep -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 6:00 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    vidvis -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 8:05 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 4:15 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:38 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 4:28 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Timothy Chow -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 12:21 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Albert Steg -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 5:56 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:44 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    sita -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 9:03 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    christian munk-christensen -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:46 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 2:49 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Timothy Chow -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 12:24 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Rick Janowski -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 2:04 a.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:41 a.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:51 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 12:08 p.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 12:24 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 12:33 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Colin Owen -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:20 p.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:53 p.m.
                • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                  Colin Owen -- Tuesday, 23 February 2016, at 12:54 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                    Florin Popa -- Tuesday, 23 February 2016, at 1:08 a.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:32 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Rick Janowski -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:45 p.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 4:04 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Sean Garber -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 7:57 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 9:01 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Schigolch -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 11:24 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    niuniuch -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 12:58 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Sean Garber -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 10:29 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 10:43 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:42 p.m.