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Improved Cube Handling in Races
Posted By: JM2004
Date: Monday, 30 June 2014, at 5:23 p.m.
In Response To: Improved Cube Handling in Races (JM2004)
I just got another thought.
Calculating winning chances in long races (maybe 60+ pips or EPC) is rather easy. There is a strong linear correlation between pipcount and winning chances
If races get shorter it gets more and more nonlinear. You have to consider such things like "roll vs pip" bearoffs and so on. I couldn't even create a formula that works below 20 pips EPC very good. You have to consider who is on roll and if he is likely to bear off in 1 or 2 rolls or if it is something like 1,5 rolls.
Maybe Axel Reichert will divide his database when rewriting his article. I am sure his formula is less precise than 1,04 pips in short races. While it is pretty precise in long races.
I think there is much need for independent research. Especially look at the error in CPW not just if the formula gives a good hint in money game. This is quantitative versus qualitative information.

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