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Ed O - Dual duel suggestion

Posted By: Rod
Date: Friday, 7 February 2014, at 1:53 a.m.

In Response To: Ed O - Dual duel suggestion (Petko)

I spoke with Matt prior to the dual-duel.

Based on what he said - and I am NOT misrepresenting what he said - it is very difficult for a player that is even a small degree weaker to win in this event.

Obviously it is not impossible. There are 2 types of luck that go into a backgammon match. Lucky rolls to win (winning 11-0 would be an example) and lucky rolls that are easy for you to play (an example is when a 5.0 PR player plays a 3.5 - that's not because he was simply playing better that match).

There is also the luck of the draw - if Matt and Mochy drew each other in the first round that would be lucky for the other players.

Based on Matt's comments to me and my understanding of the game, it would be EXTREMELY difficult for many of the players you mention, Petko, to win the dual-duel (but NOT impossible). You, Petko, and Victor have a reasonable chance - perhaps similar chances as Matt and Mochy. I'm not sure what Dana posts normally, though I have seen a few very low PR's from him. But based on what Paul says (openly) his PR is and what I know of the other's PR's.... it's just not very realistic. Sure, they can win... but they'd have to get quite lucky to do so. Of all of those great players (I am NOT taking anything away from them and I am NOT saying they aren't a whole lot better than me), they simply don't post average PR's that are low enough to make them anything but long shots in the dual-duel as it operates currently.

Just a dose of reality.

Again, each of the players you mentioned ARE better than I am. Each plays a lower average PR than I do. I am NOT taking anything away from them. ANY of those players could, on occasion, outplay PR-wise Matt, Mochy, or Victor. It just isn't going to happen often enough to give them a great chance of winning a dual-duel event.

What are the odds of you, Victor, Matt or Mochy winning the event if the initial draw looked like this:

1. Petko 2. Malcolm

3. MCG 4. David Rockwell

5. Mochy 6. Paul Weaver

7. Victor 8. Ray Fogerlund

95%?

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