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BGonline.org Forums
XG's opinion/ vs other opinions/and the next duel
Posted By: Phil Simborg In Response To: XG's opinion/ vs other opinions/and the next duel (ChanningW)
Date: Monday, 13 April 2015, at 3:46 p.m.
To answer your question we need to define the rules better. If one player gets a 3-1 and the other gets the cube, and the player with the cube gets the next roll, I am pretty sure I would rather be the player with the cube.
If the player with the 3-1 has a 50-50 chance of getting the next roll, I would make him a clear favorite. I suspect that the player with the cube in this battle should always get the first roll, and also, gammons do count.
The experiment with two top players can be replicated more closely on the computer, as the difference between their skills and the computer is not that great.
So Mochy could play XG 50 games where he starts with the cube and 50 games where XG starts with the cube and I would think the results would not be a lot different than if he played Michy those 100 games.
The results might be far different if he played Falafel and a few other players who have approaches that are not necessarily the same as Mochy's or XG in money play.
Also, one thing that many people forget is that Mochy and I are not doing this to see who ends up with points...that is not the bet or the reason for the contest. We are looking to see who can win the most, just as you would in any money game.
I have to admit that while I believe Money Management is not smart in money games, because it doesn't matter how you end up in a particular session but more how you end up in life, but in a competition like this I am sure if it is close at the end Mochy and I could not help but feel like when it is all over we would be remembered as the one who ended up with points. So what does that do to his or my strategy when we get down to a few games left and one of us has a slight lead? Would the one behind become more aggressive? Would the one ahead tend to be more conservative? And the same question applies if one is ahead, say, 6 or 8 points with 4 or 5 games to go, or 12 points with 10 games to go.
I am going to do my best to ignore the score and try to maximize my equity in each game, just as I would do in any chouette or money game and I think I have disciplined myself over 40 years of play to do this (even though others disagree and believe money-management is valid). But certainly there is a part of me if, on the last game I am up 4 points and holding a 2 cube, I would have to think it would be a lot harder for me to double when I would love to walk away from Vegas beating Mochy instead of being jokered on the last game when I could have prevented losing by holding the cube.
It is a conundrum, and does make it more complicated for some people I know who have placed bets on which on of us will end up winning points instead of betting per point, as Mochy and I are.
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